Fourteen years ago, when I was a regular columnist at MoneyShow.com, a producer at CNBC found my work and invited me to audition for a new trading show the network was producing. 

I flew to New Jersey, they picked me up from my hotel in a limo, and brought me over to their studio. 

The audition consisted of a group of columnists and investors doing some quick analysis of charts that CNBC host Brian Sullivan put up on some kind of digital display. At one point, Sullivan was looking specifically for predictions of where the S&P 500 would go. 

My view of market predictions was the same back then as it is today.

They’re better at filling TV airtime than they are at helping individuals invest for retirement. 

For some reason, I didn’t quite understand yet what CNBC was looking for, so when Sullivan asked for my prediction, I said, “I don’t give predictions.” Sounds good I’m on my way

Wrong thing to say.

He gave me a look that was part disapproval, part “What kind of idiot did they bring me?” He said, “Kate, viewers like nice round numbers.” 

I wasn’t cast on the show. They actually ended up doing some other version of it; I can’t exactly remember anymore and I haven’t watched CNBC in years. In any event, I was living in Santa Fe and the show would have been produced in-person in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, so I don’t know how that would have worked.

The Silly Season

We’re in the time of year when banks and brokerages issue their forecasts for the next 12 months, and financial publications ask their writers to share their opinions of what might happen. 

Everyone suddenly has a view on where the market is headed. And Brian Sullivan wasn’t wrong: People do want forecasts. Humans have a tough time dealing with uncertainty, so I understand why the prediction of a nameless writer at Seeking Alpha can help people sleep better at night. 

Why I Hate Market Predictions

I’ve been a financial advisor for 14 years. 

But I was in the financial industry long before that. I got my start teaching stock trading through Investor’s Business Daily’s national speaker programs. I wrote. I recorded videos. I stood in front of rooms full of people giving their rapt attention to charts, breakouts, and why this cup-with-handle setup looked promising.

But somewhere along the way, it became obvious that “what stock will double in the next six months” is rarely the decision that determines whether someone retires comfortably or confidently.

The decisions that matter more tend to be quieter:

• When to retire
• How to turn savings into income
• When to claim Social Security
• How much risk to take after you stop earning a paycheck
• How to give money away in a way that actually reflects your values
• How to help family without blowing up your own future

Helping people make those kinds of decisions and seeing the relief that comes with clarity, that’s how I enjoy spending my time now.

Sure, clients ask me for my forecasts. For the same reasons, readers of Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance and the Wall Street Journal are looking for predictions: Reassurance. Someone to either tell them things will be OK, or to help them prepare for the worst. 

The problem isn’t preparing for bad things. I’m a huge advocate of anticipating downturns, recessions, health events, and all the other unglamorous realities of life. That’s called financial planning. 

The problem is making long-term decisions based on short-term fear. (Which in my experience happens far more frequently than making long-term decisions based on exuberance about what’s happening in the market today. Your mileage may vary.)

Forecasts Are Extra Dangerous for Retirement Savers

If you already believe the market is about to collapse, you can find endless content to support that view. And once you’re convinced, suddenly “sitting in cash” feels prudent, even if inflation slowly chips away at your purchasing power.

The irony is that the biggest retirement risks are rarely dramatic crashes. They’re mostly self-inflicted, unforced errors.

• Getting too conservative too early
• Letting fear override a well-thought-out plan
• Making all-or-nothing moves based on headlines
• Confusing activity with protection

The approach you take to downturns matters far more than predicting when they’ll happen.

The Data on Forecast Accuracy Is Not Encouraging

If forecasts were just off by a little, this would be a minor issue. But that’s not what tends to happen. 

This image from Bloomberg shows the wide range of Wall Street’s predicted returns and what actually happened.

In most years, the market finished outside the forecast range entirely.

Why It Feels So Good to Follow Forecasts

People like those “nice round numbers” that Brian Sullivan talked about because they’re psychologically satisfying.

They offer certainty in an uncertain environment. They align neatly with confirmation bias, which in turn allows investors to put their faith in predictions that reinforce their existing fears or hopes. 

Because forecasts are so popular, I’ll do my own version of Miss Cleo here, and give you my 2026 forecast for every single market index or asset class.

Ready?

• They will go up.
• They will go down.
• They will trade in an essentially sideways range with neither significant gains or losses. 

I’m 100% confident in this prediction.

Happy 2026.